Australian Investors Podcast Peter Phan from Castlereagh Equity - Mental Models [Throwback]
Dec 12, 2025
In this riveting discussion, Peter Phan, Portfolio Manager and founder of Castlereagh Equity, shares his journey from card counting to investing. He explores the significance of mental models and multidisciplinary thinking in stock analysis. Peter delves into fascinating case studies like United Overseas Australia and Data#3, emphasizing valuation and management honesty. He passionately debates the efficiency of markets and the role of personal ethics in investing. Plus, he offers insightful advice on indexing, forecasting, and mentorship.
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Early Investing Journey And Failures
- Peter Phan started investing after university, buying Commonwealth Bank and Telstra as his first shares in 1996–97. He experimented with many approaches through the dot-com boom before settling on value investing after the GFC and continued learning since.
Card Counting Taught Probability
- At university Peter learned card counting at Crown Casino which taught him probability, expected returns and bet sizing. He stopped when capital was too small and returned to study and eventually law.
Investing Requires Broad Mental Models
- Deep-and-narrow specialties (like law) suit an exchange economy, while investing demands multidisciplinary breadth. To understand businesses you must link knowledge across many domains rather than specialize narrowly.
