Peter Phan from Castlereagh Equity - Mental Models [Throwback]
Australian Investors Podcast
Forecasting earnings and scenario ranges
Peter describes forecasting via scenario ranges, permutations, margin of safety and avoiding single narratives.
Peter Phan is the Portfolio Manager of Castlereagh Equity. Many Australian investors already know Peter from his time blogging and due to his activity on Twitter.
This podcast is epic, unfiltered, barely edited and raw. I barely edited this audio file.
It took place remotely, so the audio file is a little rough. Consider wearing your headphones.
You’ve probably seen this episode come up in your feed and noticed this podcast is also the longest I have ever recorded. My wife said I should break it up into parts. However, if I did that, it would the diehard investors and learners may miss the deep signal Peter covers during the next two and a half hours.
In this conversation, Peter covers everything from card counting and probability, mental models for analysing management or yourself, valuations and modelling outcomes, including examples in United Overseas Australia (ASX: UOS) and Data#3 Ltd (ASX: DTL).
@60 minutes - how Peter invests
In the first 60 minutes Peter sets the groundwork for the entire conversation. If you’re most interested in how he invests and the models he applies to his investing, jump forward to around 60 minutes into the conversation.
At the very end of the conversation, around 2 hours and 26 minutes in, Peter answers three questions, including is it ok for non-investors to follow the efficient market hypothesis and invest passively, does an investment committee work and does a fund manager need business experience? His answers are fascinating.
I hope you stick around for the full discussion and as always I hope you enjoy this conversation with Peter Phan of Castlereagh Equity.
Companies mentioned: United Overseas Australia (ASX: UOS), Data#3 Ltd (ASX: DTL)
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