Top Traders Unplugged

GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson

Sep 27, 2023

Join Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as she discusses Europe's energy dependence on Russia, the shift towards industrial policy in the US, China's economic challenges, the role of the US dollar in the international monetary order, and her thoughts on the upcoming US presidential election.

01:02:08

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Episode guests

Helen Thompson

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The potential resurgence of energy-related inflation and the state of the Chinese economy can impact central banks' ability to raise rates.

China's efforts to strengthen its position in the Middle East and diversify its energy supply have geopolitical implications.

The ongoing energy transition poses challenges for economic growth, as the need for energy conservation and low-carbon sources can affect expansion.

Deep dives

The impact of energy on central banks and inflation

Due to a decrease in direct inflationary pressures from energy, central banks may have an easier time raising rates in the near future. However, the potential resurgence of energy-related inflation and the state of the Chinese economy can impact this scenario.

Introduction

3min

Energy, Geopolitics, and Global Events

19min

The Impact of Industrial Policy and the Resurgence of Biodynamics

27min

The Internationalization of Raimimbi and the Challenge to the Dollar

2min

The Role of the Dollar in the International Monetary Order

3min

Differences Between the 1970s and the Present in terms of Energy and Monetary Strain

4min

The Political Situation in the US and the Potential for Ongoing Civil Discontent

4min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson

06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?

10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency

17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?

21:21 - A rebirth of the industrial policy

25:39 - Deglobalization - how real is it?

29:31 - What has caused the roll-back of globalization?

34:13 - When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies?

37:49 - Is the secular stagnation behind us?

42:06 - Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?

44:25 - The shifting Saudi-US relationship - a potential risk?

48:35 - A challenged dollar?

53:16 - Is this time different?

57:38 - The civil discontent in the U.S.

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