GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson
Top Traders Unplugged
Introduction
The speakers discuss the ease of central banks due to lower energy-related inflation, but caution about potential pressures and risks, including China's gas industry impact. They also touch on the risks of raising interest rates and financial market instability.
Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson
06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?
10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency
17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?
21:21 - A rebirth of the industrial policy
25:39 - Deglobalization - how real is it?
29:31 - What has caused the roll-back of globalization?
34:13 - When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies?
37:49 - Is the secular stagnation behind us?
42:06 - Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?
44:25 - The shifting Saudi-US relationship - a potential risk?
48:35 - A challenged dollar?
53:16 - Is this time different?
57:38 - The civil discontent in the U.S.
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