Peter Schaffrik is the Head of UK/European Rates & Economics at RBC, analyzing the ECB's recent cuts. Blake Gwinn, leading US Rates Strategy, provides insight into labor market trends and Fed policy impacts. Su-Lin Ong, Chief Australia Economist, discusses Australia’s labor stability amid global bank dynamics, while Alvin T. Tan highlights stimulus efforts in China and their implications. The guests examine contrasting approaches to monetary policy across various countries, emphasizing the intricacies of the global economic landscape.
Central banks worldwide are easing policies at different paces, with notable contrasts between aggressive cuts from Canada and a cautious stance from Australia.
Despite concerns of a downturn, the U.S. economy shows resilience through stable labor markets and strong corporate profitability, suggesting a more measured approach to rate cuts.
Deep dives
Central Bank Policy Divergence
Most central banks are adopting a trend of easing monetary policy, but there are notable differences in their approaches. The Bank of Canada is expected to make significant cuts, potentially reducing its terminal rate forecast to 2% with 50 basis point cuts anticipated in upcoming meetings. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is taking a more cautious stance, showing no immediate plans for rate cuts. This divergence highlights that while many economies are experiencing similar pressures, their responses are tailored based on unique local economic conditions.
The State of the U.S. Economy
Despite a prevailing narrative of an impending hard landing, indicators suggest the U.S. economy remains resilient and may be on a stable path. Labor market trends are stabilizing, with an unemployment increase largely interpreted as a normalization rather than a precursor to recession. Corporate profitability is high, and consumer spending continues to be robust, contributing to an optimistic outlook. The discussion indicates that while some anticipate aggressive cuts from the Federal Reserve, a more tempered approach might prevail, with 25 basis point cuts as the most likely course.
China's Stimulus Measures
China has announced stimulus efforts aimed at bolstering its economy, primarily focused on monetary measures, though fiscal details remain sparse. The effectiveness of these measures is questioned, as prior monetary easing has had limited impact on economic recovery. Future fiscal policies are expected to prioritize recapitalizing banks and addressing local government financing issues rather than directly stimulating consumption. This suggests that while the stimulus may support the growth target, it may not sufficiently address deeper structural economic challenges.
The ECB delivered another cut today and there is more to come, the BoC is primed to start cutting in 50bp increments and do a lot over the cycle, the Fed should cut further but only a little bit, and China has recently delivered a lot of stimulus. The RBNZ has recently cut 50bp and could follow up with materially more. But the outlier is the RBA who is sitting patiently and doesn’t appear ready to cut anytime soon. So while most centrals are moving in the same direction there is notable differences in the speed and magnitude of cuts across countries.
Participants:
Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist
Alvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist
* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts
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