Macro Minutes

The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are also lots of unknown unknowns. In this episode, we will shed light on what it means for the economy, Fed, and bond market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Michael Reid (Economics), Senior US Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have far-reaching implications for global asset markets.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy): Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy): Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market pressures, we delve into the similarities, differences, and uncertainties shaping monetary policy decisions across these regions. Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. In this episode, we look at the similarities and differences in fiscal approaches, and how markets are reacting in the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates.Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next?Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEASolenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets SolutionsAkilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Equity TradingSamkit Tated (Desk Strategy), Director of QIS Structuring.* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward. Participants:Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Elsa Lignos, Head of FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, and Blake Gwinn, Head of US Rates Strategy, dive into the complexities of the U.S.-China trade war and its ripple effects on the dollar and equity markets. They discuss evolving corporate earnings amidst tariffs and the sentiment shifts in the investor community. The pair also tackle the latest Treasury refunding announcements and the uncertain debt limit timeline, shedding light on these essential topics for market watchers.