Science Weekly Shrinking states: are we on a path to depopulation?
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Sep 9, 2025 In this discussion, Dean Spears, an economic demographer from the University of Texas at Austin, delves into the global fertility decline trends. He uncovers how two-thirds of the world’s population lives in areas with below-replacement fertility rates. The conversation challenges Elon Musk's claim that this is an existential threat, suggesting a more nuanced approach. Spears explores governmental struggles with fertility policies, rising costs of family planning, and cultural pressures impacting birth rates, sparking a vital conversation about our demographic future.
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How Depopulation Is Defined
- Global depopulation happens when successive generations average below two children per two adults.
- Two-thirds of people now live in countries below replacement, making global decline plausible if trends persist.
Past Drops Tend To Stay Low
- No country that has fallen below a lifetime fertility of two has later stayed above it long-term.
- Current snapshots may undercount births because women may be delaying rather than forgoing children.
Global Trend, Local Causes
- Falling fertility started in the global north but now appears worldwide in diverse societies.
- India shows low fertility without high female workforce participation or delayed childbearing, so multiple causes exist.
