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NAB Morning Call
Weekend Edition: The Year That Was, and the Year That Will Be
Dec 20, 2024
2024 has been a rollercoaster for the economy, showcasing surprising U.S. growth amidst global challenges. As markets soar with AI influences, concerns about Trump’s tariffs loom large. The discussion turns to rising inflation and its repercussions for central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia. Predictions swirl about the bond market and fluctuating currencies, particularly the Aussie dollar. Strategies for navigating these uncertainties, especially around overvalued U.S. equities, formulating a defensive approach, close out the lively conversation.
40:50
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Quick takeaways
- The U.S. economy has significantly outperformed expectations for 2024, driven by strong profit margins and favorable credit conditions influencing growth and equities.
- Tariff implementation under the new Trump administration poses risks for global trade dynamics and could lead to heightened economic volatility, particularly affecting relations with China.
Deep dives
U.S. Economic Resilience and Growth Outlook
The U.S. economy has shown significant resilience, surpassing initial growth forecasts for 2024. Consensus predictions have evolved from a meager 1% growth expectation to a more optimistic 2.7%, driven by strong profit margins and favorable credit conditions. The performance of U.S. equities, buoyed by a substantial wealth effect from rising markets, sets the groundwork for expectations of continued growth into 2025. However, concerns linger around expensive equity valuations, with the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio presently around 25.5, suggesting potential caution for investors.
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