Seth Godin, bestselling author of 20 books, explores the preferences of early adopters and the masses. He discusses the stages of the Gartner hype cycle using Bitcoin as an example. The host addresses feedback and talks about discussing controversial topics. They also delve into the challenges of transforming deeply ingrained beliefs and offer strategies to engage with others holding different beliefs.
The normal distribution pattern applies not only to games but also to various areas, such as book lengths and preferences for new ideas.
Navigating the dip and staying committed during the trough is crucial for achieving success with new ideas and technologies.
Deep dives
The Normal Distribution of Charts: Importance of the Center and Edges
In this podcast episode, the speaker discusses the concept of a normal distribution using the game of charts as an analogy. The charts represent an ill-advised and dangerous backyard game where individuals throw spiked projectiles towards a hula hoop. The speaker highlights that while many charts will land near the center, some will land short, go far, left, or right, representing the edges. This distribution pattern is not limited to games but can be observed in various areas, such as book lengths and heights of individuals in a gym class. The normal distribution also applies to the preferences of new ideas, where a small percentage of the population likes new things, a small percentage prefers no change, and the majority falls in the center, wanting what others want.
The Role of Media and Early Adopters in the Hype Cycle
The speaker explains the Gartner hype cycle, which describes the pattern of hype and adoption for new technologies or ideas. This cycle starts with a technology trigger, followed by the peak of inflated expectations. In this stage, early adopters and media generate excitement and anticipation. However, this peak is often followed by the trough of disillusionment, where many people lose interest and skepticism grows. The speaker points out that the media tends to focus on the hype and early stages, leading to increased attention on new ideas. The speaker highlights that while early adopters seek new and shiny things, the masses desire things that work, resulting in the slope of enlightenment and the plateau of productivity. Success lies in navigating the dip, sticking with an idea until it gains traction.
Navigating the Culture Shift and Persevering in the Trough
In the final part of the podcast, the speaker emphasizes the need to persevere and stay committed during the trough, a stage where interest diminishes and many people quit. They compare this to authors who often focus on the launch of a book but neglect to build a lasting following. Instead, the speaker encourages creators to push through the dip, where efforts seem futile, and those who stay dedicated may find themselves in the slope of enlightenment. This stage involves less media attention but attracts serious users who appreciate the value and functionality of the idea. Ultimately, the aim is to reach the plateau of productivity, where the idea becomes integrated into the culture. The speaker concludes by encouraging individuals to make a ruckus and have the belief and wherewithal to see an idea through the entire cycle.
