What Finance Got Wrong About Revenue Forecasting (and How Marketers Can Fix It!)
Nov 7, 2024
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Explore the disconnect between finance and marketing in revenue forecasting. Discover how traditional financial forecasts often miss the mark due to a lack of insight into marketing actions. Learn about the Event Effect Model, which links marketing events to revenue generation using historical data. Gain insights into the importance of a structured library of marketing activities for better predictions. Understand the need for cooperation between finance and marketing to drive accurate forecasts and successful growth strategies.
The disconnect between finance and marketing highlights how traditional revenue forecasting often overlooks the impact of specific marketing actions.
CTC’s Event Effect Model empowers marketers by linking planned marketing events to revenue predictions, fostering a proactive approach to forecasting.
Deep dives
Understanding the Event Effect Model
The event effect model aims to enhance forecasting accuracy in e-commerce by linking planned marketing actions to future revenue outcomes. It emphasizes that past performance alone is insufficient for predicting future results, especially when events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday disrupt typical sales patterns. The model encourages businesses to move beyond traditional forecasting methods by associating qualitative marketing activities—such as new campaigns or product launches—with their anticipated quantitative impacts on revenue. This approach allows e-commerce companies to proactively adjust their forecasts based on specific, planned marketing initiatives rather than relying solely on historic data.
Detailed Analysis of Marketing Actions
The model breaks down marketing efforts into discrete 'building blocks,' such as ads, emails, promotions, and product releases, assigning expected value to each based on historical performance. By analyzing the impact of each type of action on sales, businesses can better forecast the effects of their future marketing strategies. For instance, launching a 20% off sale can be assessed using past data to predict its likely success in driving sales. This granular approach enables companies to create more informed and realistic revenue expectations by understanding the specific contributions of various marketing activities.
Redefining Forecasting in E-commerce
The conversation emphasizes a shift in how forecasting is perceived in e-commerce, viewing it as an exercise in execution rather than a static numerical prediction. While traditional forecasts often lack actionable foundations, the event effect model fosters a more collaborative relationship between finance and marketing teams. It asserts that marketers should take responsibility for financial planning by clearly connecting marketing actions to expected revenue outcomes, creating a dynamic, responsive forecasting environment. This transformation aims to empower businesses to proactively design their marketing strategies to influence revenue positively, rather than passively waiting for predicted outcomes.
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In this episode of the podcast, we explore the critical disconnect between finance-driven revenue forecasting and the actual marketing actions that generate revenue. Richard and Taylor jump deep into how finance teams often miss the mark when predicting revenue growth—because they lack control over the marketing levers that drive results.
Join us as we unveil CTC’s Event Effect Model, an approach that empowers marketers to take charge of revenue forecasting. By leveraging historical data, marketing events, and detailed actions, this model allows ecommerce brands to transform their future predictions into actionable plans.
Discover:
Why traditional financial forecasts often fall short
How marketing actions like product launches, promotions, and ads directly influence revenue
The innovative strategies CTC uses to model marketing-driven revenue growth
How to use marketing events as building blocks for more accurate predictions
If you’re ready to rethink how your ecommerce brand approaches revenue forecasting and take control of your future, this is an episode you don’t want to miss. Hit that subscribe button, drop a like, and let's dive into the future of revenue forecasting!
Show Notes:
The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm
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