UBS On-Air: Market Moves Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 52)
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Nov 20, 2025 Burkhard Varnholt, a senior investment strategist at UBS, shares insights on market trends and future forecasts. He discusses the impact of earnings and interest rates on market dynamics, including record-breaking S&P earnings and defending AI valuations. Varnholt also addresses the limited risks from bank loan losses and emphasizes the historical resilience of markets post-flash crashes. Additionally, he offers a vibrant view of the Gulf economies from his time in Qatar, highlighting investment opportunities beyond fossil fuels.
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Earnings And Rates Drive Market Direction
- Markets are fundamentally driven by earnings and interest rates, not short-term noise.
- S&P earnings hit record levels with EPS at $304 and margins at 13.7%, supporting higher long-term valuations.
Q3 Earnings Show Broad Strength
- Q3 showed record earnings with 10 of 11 S&P sectors rising and same-company EPS up 16.9% year-on-year.
- Profit margins and forward revenues are at or near all-time highs, implying resilience into the holiday season.
Market Scare Risks Appear Overblown
- Short-term concerns about AI-related depreciation, private credit, and flash crashes are overstated versus fundamentals.
- Hyperscaler revenues grow exponentially while depreciation rises linearly, and bank loan-loss provisions remain low.