The Political Orphanage I Explain Venezuela Using Lottery Tickets
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Jan 9, 2026 Venezuela's economic descent is vividly depicted through the lens of lottery tickets. Rapid oil wealth led to institutional decay, exemplified by the Dutch disease. Unlike Norway, which thrived by smart investment, Venezuela became ensnared in patronage and corruption. The tale of the tragic lottery winner illustrates how sudden riches can amplify existing issues. Amidst Chavez's rise and disastrous mismanagement, hyperinflation devastated lives, revealing the perils of over-reliance on a single resource and weak governance.
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Lottery Ticket As National Metaphor
- Andrew Heaton compares cashing a big lottery ticket to a nation's sudden resource windfall to illustrate choices and consequences.
- He warns that immediate choices and character determine whether the windfall improves or destroys lives.
Holdingford Lunch Ladies Stayed Grounded
- Heaton recounts 16 cafeteria workers who won and mostly kept working and their lives improved responsibly.
- Their strong social ties and institutions cushioned the windfall into long-term benefit.
Institutions Determine Oil Outcomes
- Norway discovered oil with strong institutions already in place and treated the revenue as a supplement, not a replacement.
- That institutional readiness turned oil into durable national wealth instead of a destabilizer.