

Why Industrial Policy Is (Almost) Always a Bad Idea (with Scott Sumner)
67 snips Dec 9, 2024
Scott Sumner, a prominent economist known for advocating nominal GDP targeting, delves into the pitfalls of industrial policy and tariffs. He argues that tariffs often harm rather than help the economy, citing historical fears, like those concerning Japan's rise, which were overblown. Sumner critiques the simplistic notions linking trade to job losses, emphasizes the importance of innovation over manufacturing, and warns against geopolitical anxieties regarding China. His insights advocate for deregulation and promoting educated workforces as a balanced response to economic challenges.
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Why Free Trade Arguments Fail
- The economist's case for free trade is often unpersuasive due to its counterintuitive nature.
- People see the immediate job losses from imports but not the broader benefits and cost savings.
Misleading Trade Narratives
- South Korea, often cited as a mercantilist success, actually ran trade deficits during its high-growth period.
- Job losses in sectors like coal mining (West Virginia) are often due to technology, not trade.
Trade vs. Technology
- Trade and technological progress are fundamentally the same, both increasing productivity.
- Both trade and technology "destroy jobs" in specific sectors to create broader prosperity.