Ep. 199: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Fed Slashing Rates and Trump Winning
Jan 19, 2024
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Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Chief US economist and macro strategist, discusses the Fed's shift in view on interest rates, the impact of supply shocks on inflation and unemployment, the reasons behind the Fed's decision to cut rates, the fiscal deficit and its impact on markets, and personal interests and TV shows.
Dominique predicts a more aggressive approach by the Fed with a 50 basis points rate cut in March and additional cuts throughout the year.
Dominique argues that the recent decline in core PC inflation and energy prices has shifted the focus of the Fed towards the risk of persisting low inflation, justifying the need for preemptive cuts.
Deep dives
Dominique D'Orfico's Shift in View on the Fed
Dominique D'Orfico, previously known as a hawk on the Fed, has now become dovish. She predicts that the Fed will lower rates by 50 basis points in March, with additional cuts in the first half of the year. This is a more aggressive view compared to the market consensus of 25 basis points cut over 12 months. Dominique's change in view was influenced by Chair Powell's guidance, which focused more on actual inflation data, specifically core PC. She believes that the risk of low inflation is present, and preemptive cuts are necessary to prevent it from taking hold.
Inflation Regimes and Decision to Cut
The nature of inflation, according to Dominique, is that it tends to behave differently in high and low inflation regimes. Currently, there are clusters of low and high inflation prints across time. The recent decline in core PC inflation, coupled with the decline in energy prices, has shifted the focus of the Fed towards the risk of underperforming pre-pandemic low inflation. Dominique highlights the difficulty of bringing inflation back up once it falls into a low inflation regime, which justifies the need for cuts to prevent it from persisting.
Economics and Politics Driving Front-Loaded Cuts
Dominique explains that there are both economic and political reasons behind her suggestion for front-loaded cuts. Economically, being proactive in cutting rates is a strategy to avoid falling into low inflation. The risk is already present, emphasized by declining core PC inflation. Politically, Dominique presents two perspectives: one suggesting that the Fed is supporting the Biden reelection effort, and the other viewing the cuts as a way to distance the Fed from political controversies during the election campaign. She believes that Trump's ability to capture grievances and the loss of trust in mainstream candidates contribute to his appeal. Dominique's base case is a Republican victory with Trump as president, but with at least one house of Congress controlled by Democrats.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers what has made Dominique switch from being hawkish to dovish on the Fed, low and high inflation regimes, the importance of energy prices and foreign workers, and much more.