Columbia Energy Exchange Unpacking Recent Sanctions on Russian Oil
Oct 28, 2025
Richard Nephew, a sanctions expert, Tatiana Mitrova, a specialist in Russian energy markets, and Daniel Sternoff, an oil market analyst, dive into the implications of new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. They discuss how the sanctions aim to impact revenue for Russia’s war in Ukraine and the potential for secondary sanctions targeting buyers. The trio examines market reactions, the adaptability of Russia’s oil exports, and the geopolitical ramifications, including responses from places like China and India. Their insights highlight a complex web of energy and diplomacy.
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Sanctions Target Sellers Not Just Assets
- The U.S. listed Rosneft and Lukoil on the SDN list, threatening their U.S. assets and partners with blocking measures.
- That listing raises the risk for any foreign entity doing business with them due to potential secondary sanctions.
Enforcement, Not Labels, Drives Impact
- Blocking freezes assets in the U.S.; secondary sanctions threaten foreign banks and companies that deal with designated firms.
- Markets doubt enforcement of secondary sanctions, which determines the real impact on flows.
Targeting Big Producers Matters On Paper
- Rosneft and Lukoil account for about 6.8 million b/d, roughly 5% of global output, so targeting them is significant on paper.
- Previous sanctions on smaller firms caused temporary diversion to China and recovery within months, showing evasion capacity.