The truth about human population decline | Jennifer D. Sciubba
Oct 2, 2023
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Jennifer D. Sciubba, a political demographer, challenges conventional thinking about population growth. She discusses the decline in human population, the impact of an aging population on society, and the consequences of failing to adapt in a declining population world. She also explores the positive impact of young populations on economies and the need for longer working lives.
The declining human population poses challenges such as labor shortages and bankrupt social security systems, requiring thoughtful planning and present-day action.
Adapting to a shrinking population involves rethinking work, investing in health, promoting sustainable consumption, and embracing change to shape a better future.
Deep dives
Shift towards shrinking world and low fertility
The world is experiencing a fundamental shift towards pervasive and permanent low fertility, population aging, and eventual depopulation. Despite global population still growing, fertility rates are declining worldwide. Countries like China, South Korea, Poland, and Japan are projected to see significant population declines in the coming decades. This shrinking world presents challenges and opportunities, requiring thoughtful planning for an older and smaller population.
Consequences of clinging to the status quo
Continuing business as usual with infinite population growth assumptions has consequences. Countries struggle to raise fertility rates despite significant investments, leading to aging populations. Pay-as-you-go systems strain under the pressure of fewer workers supporting more retirees, causing social security systems to go bankrupt. Failing to adapt results in systems overload, higher labor costs, inflation, and limited global cooperation. Additionally, restriction of immigration and fear of replacement contribute to division and lack of societal resilience.
Building a resilient world through adaptation and innovation
To create a resilient world with a shrinking population, societies need to rethink work, invest in health, consider consumption patterns, and institute sustainable systems. Strategies include reimagining work at older ages, leveraging technology for productivity, prioritizing health investments, and implementing policies and technologies that promote sustainable consumption. Countries at different stages of the demographic transition require tailored approaches to address challenges such as poverty risk in older ages. By embracing change and imagining a resilient world, we can shape a better future.
With birth rates falling, the worldwide human population is getting older and smaller. According to traditional thinking, this spells a future of labor shortages, bankrupt social security systems and overall economic collapse. Before you panic about the end of life as we know it, political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba has a thoughtful playbook for managing the new normal – including ideas on the future of work and migration – and a reminder that a resilient future relies on present-day action.