Russian Offensive in Sumy Slows - Changing Nature of War: It's the Drones! /Lt Col Daniel Davis

The speaker reflects on early assumptions that Russia would be better prepared at the start of the Ukraine war, especially given their proximity to recent conflicts like Nagorno-Karabakh, which showcased the power of drones against armored vehicles. However, new research and interviews reveal a different picture: Russia was unprepared at first but quickly adapted.

Key insights include:

1. Initial Missteps: Russia underestimated drone warfare early on, similar to most nations in 2022. Drones weren’t widely used or recognized for their impact. Early in the war, even frontline journalists didn’t focus much on drone threats.
2. Drone Evolution:

• Once it became clear that small, inexpensive drones could destroy multi-million-dollar tanks and harass supply lines without risking lives, both Ukraine and Russia dramatically ramped up drone use.
• Russian civil society stepped in where large state enterprises couldn't adapt quickly—civilians began designing and offering drone models to the military.

1. Defensive Mastery: Russia, traditionally strong in defense, integrated drones, air defenses, airstrikes, and glide bombs into a layered, tech-driven defense system that made Ukraine’s 2023 NATO-backed offensive fail.
2. Western Misconceptions: Western generals and analysts, like David Petraeus, overestimated the potential of combined arms maneuver warfare (as used in Iraq 2003) and failed to grasp how much the battlefield had changed due to drone warfare.
3. Implications for NATO and Europe: Despite Western fears, the speaker argues Russia lacks the capacity to roll through Europe—even if it wanted to. Modern warfare's technological complexity and defensive capabilities make large-scale invasions extremely difficult.
4. Ukraine’s Current Position:

• While Ukraine lacks manpower and air power, it has caught up on drones and uses them effectively.
• Despite heavy casualties and weakening positions, Ukraine’s drone capabilities have slowed Russia’s advances.
• However, without manpower and full-scale support, Ukraine cannot reverse the tide.

1. The End of Classic Warfare: The era of large-scale tank-led offensives (like WWII or Iraq 2003) is over. Modern war now revolves around drones, attrition, and adaptation. Those who ignore this shift will fail.

The interviews with Russian drone experts and frontliners (like George Mansurov and those featured by Constantine Roshkov) emphasize how civilian innovation and small-scale manufacturers now play a pivotal role in shaping military effectiveness—faster and more flexibly than traditional defense industries.

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