Fantasy Life With Ian Hartitz 10 Biggest Rankings vs. Projections Discrepancies for Week 1 Fantasy | Talk Data to Me
Sep 5, 2025
Matthew Freedman, a renowned fantasy football analyst and top mock drafter, joins Dwain McFarland to dissect the intriguing discrepancies between fantasy rankings and projections for Week 1. They explore how data and intuition interplay in decision-making, tackling complexities like player injuries, game environments, and matchup influences. The duo also highlights specific players' impacts on rankings, including the rise of Khalil Shakir as a key wide receiver, making their analysis both insightful and entertaining for fantasy enthusiasts.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Projections Are A Baseline, Rankings Manage Risk
- Projections are a baseline but rankings incorporate uncertainty and downside risk for week one.
- DK Metcalf's move to a new team and tough matchup make a rankings downgrade sensible despite similar median projections.
Anchor Projections To Game Environment
- Start projections from game environment inputs like implied team totals and spreads.
- Use Vegas lines to limit unrealistic touchdown or scoring assumptions in weekly models.
Regress Toward Stable Baselines
- Baselines (career, season, recent form) are more stable than volatile efficiency metrics.
- Regresion toward baselines helps prevent overreacting to small-sample spikes in YPA or efficiency.