Financial Modeling in Retail, managing Insolvency & How Finance Can Master Cash Flow - Dave Hallwood

In this episode of Financial Modeler's Corner, host Paul Barnhurst is joined by Dave Hallwood, a finance director and certified financial modeler, for a practical and candid conversation about real-world modeling in the retail industry. From managing day-to-day operations in a fast-growing fashion retail group to navigating insolvency and restructuring, Dave shares the hard-earned lessons that have shaped his approach to modeling, decision-making, and leadership. 

Dave Hallwood is the Finance Director of a group of independent fashion retailers in the UK. After spending years in retail and hospitality management, Dave transitioned into finance in his 30s, becoming a fellow of ACCA and earning his Certified Financial Modeler (CFM) designation from the Financial Modeling Institute. With a passion for practical financial modeling, Dave has built and managed models for nearly every scenario a small retailer can face, from budgeting and forecasting to store openings, closings, and insolvency planning.

Expect to Learn:

• How to model retail cash flow when weather drives sales
• The importance of simplicity and storytelling in financial models
• What it’s like to manage an insolvency and restructure a business
• Why Dave believes gut instinct still plays a big role in decision-making
• How Dave uses modeling to support store openings, closures, and growth
• Practical advice for switching into a finance career later in life

Here are a few quotes from the episode:

• "Financial models help guide the business, but people and relationships still make it work."
• "The best decision is often a balance between what the model says and what feels right."
• "No matter how great the numbers look, if your gut says no, listen."

Dave Hallwood shares what it’s really like to model for a retail business. From managing cash flow swings to making tough calls during insolvency, he brings a grounded, real-world perspective. Dave reminds us that models should support decisions, not replace them. It’s a must-listen for anyone juggling numbers and navigating uncertainty.

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In today’s episode:

[01:31] - Welcome to the episode

[03:45] - Inheriting a messy Excel model

[06:17] - Why Dave switched careers in his 30s

[10:13] - Life as a finance lead in retail

[14:16] - Forecasting cash flow in a seasonal business

[18:54] - How to model each store differently

[26:58] - Lessons from an insolvency and business rescue

[32:59] - Why Dave supports the FMI community

[40:01] - Horizontal or Vertical Modeling Preferences

[42:23] - Gut vs. model: what really drives decisions

[44:36] - Closing Reflections with Dave