Iran’s nuclear talks could reshape the Middle East
Apr 17, 2025
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Sanam Vakil, the Director of the Middle East Program at Chatham House, shares her expertise on Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional geopolitics. She discusses the urgent nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, emphasizing the potential for military action prompted by Israel. The conversation navigates shifting alliances, particularly Iran's diplomatic overtures to Saudi Arabia, and the complexities of U.S. foreign relations involving both nations. Vakil highlights the implications of these talks on Middle Eastern stability and the prospects for future agreements.
The advancement of Iran's nuclear program has heightened conflict risks, compelling urgent U.S.-Iran negotiations to avoid military escalation.
Shifts in regional diplomacy reflect a move towards independent security management by Middle Eastern countries, challenging U.S. influence in the area.
Deep dives
Evolving Nuclear Threat
Iran's nuclear program has significantly advanced since the U.S. withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, prompting concerns about its potential to develop nuclear weapons. The political landscape has shifted, with Iran facing a direct military threat from Israel, which has conducted strikes to undermine Iranian influence and capabilities in the region. Since October 7, 2023, these military actions have intensified, reflecting Israel's position that Iran's weakened state presents a unique opportunity for a strategic strike against its nuclear facilities. This climate of heightened tension begs the question of how close Iran is to achieving nuclear capability, with expert assessment labeling it a threshold state, substantially raising the stakes for potential conflict in the Middle East.
Time-Sensitive Negotiations
The urgency of reaching a new nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran is underscored by the approach of key expiration dates outlined in the original JCPOA. The imminent snapback sanctions deadline set for October 18, 2023, presents a significant time constraint for negotiations, which normally could extend over years. Notably, if new arrangements fail to materialize, Europe may reassert pressure through sanctions and even take the issue back to the UN Security Council. Thus, the clock is ticking not only against a potential war but also for diplomatic efforts that need to commence in months rather than years to address the complexities of Iran's nuclear activities.
Regional Dynamics and Alliances
Recent changes in regional diplomacy have shifted how countries engage with Iran, as seen in the restored ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia and increased cooperation from other Gulf states. These nations are increasingly motivated to manage security dynamics independently rather than relying solely on U.S. intervention. Iran has strategically aligned itself with China and Russia amidst international isolation, fostering economic ties that help it navigate sanctions. This evolving multi-polar landscape suggests that regional states are looking for de-escalation mechanisms to mitigate the risks of direct conflict, which complicates the geopolitical calculus for the U.S. and its allies.
Nuclear talks between the US and Iran began last weekend in Oman, and are set to continue in the coming weeks. President Trump has warned that if the talks fail the US could take military action against the Islamic republic – an idea that Israel's government is pressing for. What might a new nuclear deal with Iran look like – and how might it change the geopolitical picture in the Middle East? Clip: The Express Tribune
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