GD POLITICS

We Answer Your Questions On ICE, Iran, And The Senate

8 snips
Jan 15, 2026
Lenny Bronner, a Senior data scientist at The Washington Post, joins to unpack current political trends. He delves into the recent surge of ICE activities in Minneapolis, highlighting shifting public attitudes driven by partisan divisions. The conversation turns to Mary Peltola's Senate prospects in Alaska, with Lenny suggesting tough odds for Democrats. They also discuss the implications of immigration issues on Trump's approval ratings and the impact of poll responses in minority communities amidst heightened public scrutiny.
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INSIGHT

Peltola Is Competitive But Underdog

  • Mary Peltola's Alaska Senate bid is plausible but not a clear favorite against Dan Sullivan.
  • Lenny estimates her win probability closer to ~40% despite some polls showing her competitive.
INSIGHT

Alaska's Unique Electoral Factors Matter

  • Rank-choice voting and prior wins make Alaska races unpredictable and often close.
  • Endorsements like Lisa Murkowski's for Sullivan could materially affect Peltola's odds.
INSIGHT

ICE Approval Is Deeply Polarized

  • Public opinion of ICE is sharply polarized along partisan lines after recent events.
  • Quinnipiac shows 57% disapproval overall, with large Republican-Democrat splits.
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