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"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg
E88: The Fertility Apocalypse w/ Samo Burja
Oct 24, 2024
Samo Burja, a demographic expert and co-host of the Live Players podcast, dives into the pressing issue of global declining fertility rates. He discusses the potential catastrophic implications on job markets and real estate, citing examples from Japan and Thailand. Burja also explores the complex realities of fertility trends, societal impacts, and the inaccuracies in population projections. The conversation touches on the speculative future of underpopulation, AI's role, and evolving surrogacy practices as solutions to this demographic crisis.
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Quick takeaways
- Global fertility rates are plunging, posing an existential threat to society akin to nuclear war or AI risks.
- Cultural differences complicate understanding declining fertility trends, as modern life presents varied opportunity costs for individuals, particularly women.
Deep dives
Global Fertility Decline
Fertility rates are plummeting globally, with alarming figures from various countries, including South Korea and Nigeria, highlighting the crisis. Some cities are experiencing total fertility rates (TFR) as low as 0.2 or 0.3, raising concerns about the potential for a TFR zero society. This decline is seen as an existential risk to humanity, comparable to threats like nuclear war or artificial intelligence. Demographic changes are already impacting societies, and the question remains whether these trends can be reversed.
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