"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg E88: The Fertility Apocalypse w/ Samo Burja
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Oct 24, 2024 
Samo Burja, a demographic expert and co-host of the Live Players podcast, dives into the pressing issue of global declining fertility rates. He discusses the potential catastrophic implications on job markets and real estate, citing examples from Japan and Thailand. Burja also explores the complex realities of fertility trends, societal impacts, and the inaccuracies in population projections. The conversation touches on the speculative future of underpopulation, AI's role, and evolving surrogacy practices as solutions to this demographic crisis.
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Existential Demographic Crisis
- Samo Burja argues there's no known force stopping global fertility from reaching zero.
- He claims this demographic crisis is an existential risk comparable to nuclear war or AI.
Eastern European Fertility
- Eastern Europe saw fertility rates recover slightly after the end of communism, but not above replacement rate.
- The post-COVID years show a continued decline, defying expectations of a baby boom.
Fertility Outliers
- High-income countries with above-replacement fertility are rare outliers like Israel.
- Current theories, like modernity reducing women's desire for children, don't fully explain the global decline.