Everyone Feared Recession. His Data Said Otherwise | US Bank CIO Eric Freedman on What It Says Now

Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor.

Topics covered:

• Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” framework

• Why the U.S. consumer remains resilient

• Inflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfolios

• The Fed’s next moves and what investors should watch

• Global diversification and the case for international stocks

• How to think about inflation protection and real assets

• The diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretenders

• Market concentration, valuations, and managing risk

• Life lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-making

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
03:00 Controlling the controllables
06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy
10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank
15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel
18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard
22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges
30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy
34:00 Global competition and diversification
38:00 Inflation protection and real assets
41:30 The reality of AI and productivity
47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 7
52:00 Valuations and long-term returns
55:45 Lessons for investors