Trumponomics Is a Trump Recession on the Way?
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Mar 5, 2025 
Anna Wong, Chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics, and Kathryn Holston, Economist at Evercore ISI Research, delve into the looming question of a Trump recession. They dissect the economic shifts caused by government layoffs, tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty, moving from initial growth expectations to concerns over contraction. The duo explores the implications of tariffs on inflation and how policy uncertainty affects job growth. With insights drawn from their impressive backgrounds, they provide a thought-provoking analysis of today's economic landscape.
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Potential Economic Slowdown
- The US economy might be slowing down, with predictions of shrinkage in the first quarter of the year.
- Investors are betting on interest rate cuts by the Fed to support the economy.
Impact of Tariffs and Layoffs
- Tariffs and government layoffs could significantly impact the US economy.
- These factors contribute to inflation and uncertainty in trade policy.
Trade Policy Uncertainty
- The direct impact of tariffs on GDP and core PCE inflation is estimated to be substantial.
- Trade policy uncertainty is even more significant than the tariffs themselves.