Talking Markets: Equities edition with Dan Suzuki of Richard Bernstein Advisors
Nov 20, 2023
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Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors, discusses the near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy and equity markets. Topics include the challenges of economic forecasting, the disconnect between corporate profits and the economy, sector preferences, and attractive regions outside of the US.
Identifying inflections in the economic cycle is more crucial than predicting the exact timing of a recession.
A sustained re-acceleration in inflation could potentially lead to a hard landing or recession.
Deep dives
US Economy: Soft Landing vs. Hard Landing
The podcast discusses the ongoing debate of whether the US economy will experience a soft landing or a hard landing. The speaker explains that a hard landing refers to a recession, while a soft landing means avoiding a recession. However, the timing of a recession is difficult to predict, as economic forecasting often struggles to accurately determine when a recession will occur. The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying inflections in the economic cycle, rather than trying to pinpoint the exact timing of a recession.
Monetary Policy and Inflation
The podcast explores the relationship between monetary policy and inflation. The speaker discusses the Fed's stance on monetary policy and the potential risks of inflation. While inflation has been above the Fed's target of 2%, the speaker suggests that a sustained re-acceleration in inflation could lead to a hard landing or recession. The speaker highlights the importance of monitoring growth as a leading indicator for the Fed's policy decisions and emphasizes the dynamic nature of the economic landscape.
Earnings Growth and Equity Performance
The podcast examines the outlook for earnings growth and equity performance. The speaker acknowledges the disconnect between corporate profits and the overall economy, with corporate profits experiencing weakness while the economy remained strong. However, the speaker notes that there are signs of recovery in areas that drive corporate profits, such as manufacturing and trade. The speaker suggests that the growth in earnings is likely to continue in the near term, but highlights the need to monitor indicators for any potential inflection points. The speaker also discusses sector preferences, focusing on cyclical stocks and cheaper assets outside of the US, as well as the importance of diversification in portfolios.
Dan rejoins the podcast to provide his near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy, monetary policy, and equity markets. We also discuss where Dan is finding opportunity within equities, as well as the risks to be mindful of as we approach the new year and into early 2024. Featured is Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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