Why Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes Podcast cover image

Why Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes Podcast

The State of Polling with Nate Cohn

Mar 26, 2024
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, explores the complexities of polling, survey methodology, and systematic biases in politics. He discusses the limitations of polling in predicting election outcomes and the evolving role of polls in understanding campaigns and public sentiment.
52:21

Episode guests

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Quick takeaways

  • Polling faces challenges in providing accurate insights due to biases and evolving societal categories.
  • Achieving a representative sample through probability sampling is crucial for accurate polling results.

Deep dives

The Role of Polling in Understanding Campaign Behavior

Polls, especially in election years, garner significant attention as they attempt to reveal the future in politics. Despite our desire to predict outcomes, polls have limitations and complexities that can lead to dissatisfaction. The mismatch between what polls excel at and our expectations often causes frustration. Polls, as a tool, face challenges in providing insightful information given our evolving societal categories and shifting demographics. Polling not only influences public perception of campaigns but also impacts political decisions based on flawed or inaccurate data.

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