Guy Gratton, aviation expert, discusses the increase in severe air turbulence and its causes. Topics include pilot strategies, climate change impact, and enhancing forecasting to mitigate risks in air travel.
Clear air turbulence has increased by 55% due to climate change affecting flight safety.
Improving forecasting and radar technologies can enhance safety measures amidst growing turbulence challenges.
Deep dives
Understanding Turbulence Types and Causes
Turbulence in flight can be attributed to two main types: clear air turbulence and turbulence associated with cumulonimbus clouds. Clear air turbulence occurs around jet streams, while cumulonimbus clouds produce strong air currents. Pilots may try to avoid turbulence by descending or altering course, and slowing the aircraft's speed can reduce its impact during turbulence episodes.
Impact of Climate Change on Turbulence
Research indicates a 55% increase in clear air turbulence due to climate change, particularly affecting regions with significant airspeed variations like the North Atlantic route. Climate change intensifies airspeed within the jet stream, leading to more frequent and severe turbulence encounters. As flight frequency increases and planes fly closer together, mitigating turbulence challenges arises.
Challenges and Solutions for Turbulence Prediction
Predicting turbulence, especially clear air turbulence, remains challenging due to its unpredictable nature. Aircraft technology aids in navigating storm-related turbulence but struggles with clear air turbulence. Improved forecasting and radar technologies can enhance safety measures, although adjusting flight paths may lead to increased emissions and longer routes.
On Tuesday a British man died and several others were injured when their plane encountered severe turbulence between London and Singapore. And it looks like this kind of turbulence is something we’ll have to get used to. Last year a study found severe clear-air turbulence had increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020. Ian Sample speaks to Guy Gratton, associate professor of aviation and the environment at Cranfield University, to find out why this is happening, and whether there’s anything we can do to reverse the trend.. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/sciencepod
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