Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, shares her insights on the complexities of global monetary policy. She discusses the recent weak US jobs report and its ripple effects on central banks. Mann argues for holding interest rates steady amid falling inflation and economic volatility, while examining how these changes impact mortgages and renters. She highlights the differences in economic recovery between the UK, US, and euro area, and the importance of firm expectations in shaping future monetary decisions.
Catherine Mann emphasizes the importance of evaluating macroeconomic indicators to guide monetary policy decisions amid ongoing market volatility.
Mann highlights structural risks associated with services inflation in the UK, indicating the need for careful oversight to achieve sustainable inflation rates.
Deep dives
Monetary Policy Decision-Making
Catherine Mann provides insight into her approach to monetary policy decision-making by discussing her analysis process before meetings. She outlines how she evaluates the potential actions of holding rates versus cutting rates, based on current economic data and forecasts. She shares that the strong argument for cutting rates stems from the alignment with the 2% inflation target already being achieved and the anticipated decrease in inflation expectations. This methodical assessment is crucial as it underscores the importance of understanding macroeconomic indicators before making policy decisions that impact the economy.
Impact of Market Volatility
The discussion elaborates on how recent market volatility, particularly stemming from disappointing job numbers in the US, can influence UK monetary policy decisions. Mann explains that fluctuations in US financial markets have spillover effects on the UK, affecting its yield curve and overall economic stability. Furthermore, she highlights that persistent volatility can lead to a higher terminal rate due to the inflation premium associated with fluctuating markets. This relationship emphasizes the interconnectedness of global economies and the need for UK policymakers to adjust their stances in response to external pressures.
Structural Risks to Services Inflation
Mann expresses concern over the structural risks associated with services inflation in the UK, emphasizing that wages and their impact on service prices present lasting challenges. With services inflation running higher than goods inflation, this discrepancy raises flags about potential overheating in the economy. She points out that upward pressures on wages and the behavior of firms in pricing suggest a long-term risk to achieving sustainable inflation rates. Consequently, maintaining a careful watch on these dynamics is essential for making informed monetary policy decisions that align with the Bank of England's inflation targets.
Recent events, including a weak US jobs report, a pullback in Japan, and volatility in US markets have made life trickier for central bankers around the world. In the UK, moderating inflation led the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to cut rates on August 1. The vote was 5-4, with member Catherine Mann voting to hold. Today on the show, Soumaya Keynes and Mann discuss the case for holding steady in a time of volatility and falling inflation.
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Soumaya Keynes writes a column each week for the Financial Times. You can find it here