Skye Masters, a market economist and strategist at NAB, delves into the intricate dynamics of global markets amidst significant geopolitical events. She explores how the recent martial law in Korea and France's political instability have surprisingly left the markets largely unshaken. Masters also discusses the implications of US employment trends and expected monetary policy shifts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, she touches on Australia's latest GDP data, linking government policies to public sector growth and examining its broader economic impact.
Recent geopolitical events, particularly in South Korea and France, have not significantly impacted market stability, indicating a focus on monetary policy instead.
The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December aligns with stable job growth signs, despite a gradual easing in the job market.
Deep dives
Political Instability in South Korea and France
Recent political developments in South Korea involve the imposition and subsequent repeal of martial law, raising questions about the president's future. This situation has sparked protests and could potentially threaten the president's leadership. Meanwhile, France is facing a no-confidence vote, with the government hoping to survive the challenge. Despite these significant geopolitical events, financial markets have remained relatively stable, showing a muted reaction which suggests a greater focus on monetary policies rather than political upheaval.
U.S. Economic Indicators and Market Reactions
The recent JOLTS job openings report indicated a rise to 7.74 million, surpassing expectations, but its overall impact on market sentiment has been limited. The Federal Reserve is forecasting a rate cut in December, evidenced by a 72% market expectation, despite a gradual easing in the job market. The job postings to unemployment ratio has edged up slightly, but it remains below levels seen a year prior, indicating a potential slowdown in wage growth. Fed commentary suggests continued consideration for cuts as the economy shows signs of stable job growth without immediate urgency.
Australian GDP and Global Economic Context
Australia's Q3 GDP data is anticipated, with analysts predicting modest growth in the range of 0.3% to 0.7%. The public sector has significantly contributed to economic growth, buoyed by government spending policies and electricity subsidies. In the broader context, global market fluctuations are influenced by developments in China, particularly its weak yuan, which has affected the performance of the Australian and Kiwi dollars. This economic interplay highlights the ongoing challenges in navigating both local and international economic dynamics.
It was a hectic session for geopolitics but, as NAB’s Skye Masters discusses, it hasn’t had much impact on markets. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the imposition of martial law in Korea, which was shortly afterwards overturned by parliament, but placing a question mark over the political life of the President. France has it’s no-confidence vote today, but European uncertainty seems to be priced in. In the US markets paid more attention to the Fed’s Christopher Waller than the rise in job openings and quits. Tonight, Jerome Powell could seal-the-deal as far, as markets are concerned, for a December rate cut. Locally, Australian GDP is the key number.