Macro Voices MacroVoices #498 Louis-Vincent Gave: Which Megatrend Will Reshape The World?
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Sep 18, 2025 
Louis-Vincent Gave, co-founder of Gavekal and a macro strategist, dives into global reflation and its impact on investments. He presents a compelling case for gold as a structural bull play while highlighting the underappreciated potential of copper and energy. The discussion also covers geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China, and the emerging economic ties among Russia, China, and India that could disrupt global supply chains. Gave emphasizes the drivers behind China’s equity rally and warns of geopolitical risks for investors.
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Global Reflationary Regime
- Global markets are in a reflationary regime driven by coordinated stimulative policies across major economies.
- That reflation shows in financials, EM debt, precious metals, and industrial outperformance.
Dollar Outflows Fuel EM Reflation
- The US current account deficit surged from 3.6% to about 6% of GDP in a year, exporting ~$2 trillion abroad annually.
- Excess dollars and a weakening USD create tailwinds for emerging markets and reflation globally.
Gold's Structural Bull Case
- Gold is in a structural bull market due to dollar weakness and central bank buying, despite being expensive on many ratios.
- Momentum, constrained supply, and central-bank demand make shorting gold hazardous.
