#176 Economist Jonathan Treussard On The Extraordinarily Confusing Macro Data, Markets With A Memory Of A Goldfish, And If We're In Bubble Territory
Jun 13, 2024
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Economist Jonathan Treussard discusses confusing macro data, market volatility, wealth inequality, AI, and market bubbles. He shares insights on market risks, middle class struggles, and his journey from musician to economist. Treussard also explores changing perceptions of America, opportunities in U.S. higher education, and concerns about CRE and private credit.
Understanding the impact of confusing macro data and market volatility is crucial for assessing economic trends and implications.
Recognizing the risks in commercial real estate and private credit markets calls for investment resilience and caution against inflated valuations.
Deep dives
Jonathan's Macro View on the Economy and Markets
Jonathan discusses the confusion in today's economy and markets, highlighting the volatility in macro data and its impact. He focuses on the recent CPI data and the challenges in interpreting economic trends, emphasizing the need for a holistic view of economic indicators to understand the true inflationary tendencies.
Inflation, Employment, and Consumer Behavior
Jonathan reviews recent economic data, including strong employment numbers and rising hourly earnings. He points out the impact of market rallies on retirement decisions, as individuals assess financial positions based on market gains. The discussion delves into the complexities of consumer behavior influenced by wealth inequality.
Geopolitical and Economic Impacts
Jonathan highlights geopolitical factors affecting market behavior, citing NVIDIA as a case study influenced by global markets and risks. He correlates global geopolitical factors with market resilience and the need for caution amidst uncertainties. The discussion underscores the interplay between geopolitical tensions and market dynamics.
Real Estate and Investment Strategies
Lastly, Jonathan analyzes the challenges in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, emphasizing the systemic risks it poses. He addresses the risks associated with private credit and equity markets, projecting potential vulnerabilities. Jonathan advocates for investment resilience and humility during uncertain market conditions, advising against extreme positions based on speculative bubbles.
Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets.