In this insightful discussion, Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist at Kiwibank, delves into New Zealand's precarious economic situation. He debates whether the Reserve Bank should accelerate monetary policy shifts amidst recession recovery. Kerr highlights the challenges of rising mortgage rates and local funding needs while addressing the impacts of cash rate cuts on housing and inflation. He also shares optimism about emerging consumer spending trends and the potential for a positive economic turnaround despite global uncertainties.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has adjusted its monetary policy in response to recessionary pressures, recently signaling interest rate cuts to stimulate economic recovery.
Inflation challenges remain, influenced by external factors like government charges and global tariffs, complicating the Bank's ability to manage sustainable growth.
Deep dives
Understanding the Reserve Bank's Actions
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has faced significant challenges in managing the economy, particularly in a rapidly changing environment. Recently, the Bank struggled to gauge the economic pace, leading to a delayed response where interest rates were raised even as the economy entered a recession. As of late 2023, the Reserve Bank began to cut interest rates from 3.75%, signaling an urgent need for economic stimulation rather than restriction. The discussion centers on whether a further reduction below 3% is necessary, as the economy continues to need support to recover from a deep recession.
Inflationary Pressures and External Factors
Inflation remains a pressing concern for the Reserve Bank, exacerbated by government-imposed charges and rising costs in essential services. These administered prices, such as fines and fees, are less responsive to monetary policy, prompting the Bank to maintain higher interest rates to control overall inflation. This situation highlights the challenge of balancing inflation management while dealing with external shocks, including those driven by political changes and tariffs in other countries. Consequently, the Reserve Bank faces pressure to act decisively while these external inflationary pressures linger.
Looking Towards Economic Recovery
The potential for economic recovery in New Zealand in 2024 depends on a careful interplay of consumer spending and business confidence. As interest rates decrease, there is optimism that households will shift from a savings-focused mindset to spending more, further stimulating growth. The expectation is that with the ongoing cuts, confidence will rebalance, enabling businesses to invest and hire again. The overall sentiment is that while 2024 may be about survival, the real growth and improvement are anticipated for 2025 and beyond.
Even as New Zealand’s economy was in the depths of a recession, the Reserve Bank kept a firm grip on monetary policy, only easing up in mid-2024. This week, Bernard Hickey sits down with Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr to discuss whether the Reserve Bank should be hitting the accelerator now, rather than simply lifting its foot off the brake.