The China Challenge, With Liza Tobin and Jake Werner (Election 2024, Episode 6)
Oct 22, 2024
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Liza Tobin, a senior director for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project, and Jake Werner, acting director at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, dive deep into the complexities of U.S.-China relations. They discuss the shift from engagement to rivalry and the historical misjudgments of the U.S. regarding China. The duo examines China's quest for global dominance and the balance of power under Xi Jinping. Key insights on navigating these challenges for future U.S. policy highlight the need for cooperation despite systemic tensions.
The U.S.-China relationship has evolved into a systemic rivalry, necessitating a strategic shift in American foreign policy towards candid confrontation rather than idealistic engagement.
Despite the existing potential for cooperation on global challenges, entrenched distrust and contrasting political ideologies hinder meaningful engagement between the two nations.
Deep dives
Understanding U.S.-China Relations
The current relationship between the United States and China is characterized as a systemic rivalry, suggesting significant competition that is more intense than mere rivalry. This perspective emphasizes that both nations are not just competing but are engaged in a complex geopolitical struggle where each views the other as a primary obstacle to their ambitions. The dialogue reflects a shift from the U.S.'s earlier policy of strategic engagement, which aimed to integrate China into the global order, to a recognition of China's long-term aim of asserting itself as a global power. This transition highlights fundamental ideological differences between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party, particularly in governance and international relations.
The Consequences of Misguided Engagement
Historically, the U.S. believed that integrating China into the world economy would lead to mutual benefits and a decrease in tensions; however, this assumption has proven misguided. As China has risen in power and influence, it has demonstrated aggressive behavior, such as technological theft and military posturing in regions like the South China Sea, which contradicts the U.S. expectations of cooperative behavior. This has led to a realization that the Chinese Communist Party has been clear about its intentions for decades, aiming to establish itself as a superpower while challenging American values abroad. The past U.S. engagement strategies have now prompted a reassessment of how to effectively deal with these challenges in light of China's ambitions.
Navigating Towards Conflict or Cooperation
Many experts warn that U.S.-China relations are approaching a point of serious conflict, emphasizing that this antagonism is shaped by growing competition and misunderstanding on both sides. Despite the potential for cooperation on pressing global issues like climate change and public health, the current political climate fosters a rivalry where both parties blame the other for deteriorating relations. The need for communication is critical to prevent miscalculations that could escalate into conflicts; however, China's frequent cancellation of dialogues reinforces distrust. It is contended that while the potential for collaborative efforts exists, structural issues and divergent goals hinder meaningful engagement between the two powers.
Future Policy Directions for the U.S.
Going forward, the U.S. must adopt a multifaceted approach in its foreign policy that combines realism with a vision for future cooperation while addressing the current realities of its relationship with China. There's a growing consensus that policymakers need to move beyond the illusion of a normal partnership and instead confront China candidly as a strategic competitor that poses challenges to U.S. interests. This could involve embracing a narrative that allows for the hope of reform and re-engagement in the distant future while implementing immediate policies that ensure security and shape the international order. The importance of addressing domestic inequalities and promoting global stability is underscored as a pathway to foster better international relations, including with China.
Liza Tobin, senior director for economy at the Special Competitive Studies Project, and Jake Werner, acting director of the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, sit down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the challenges the next president will face navigating relations with China. This episode is the sixth in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2024 presidential election and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.