Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 302: Vania Stavrakeva on Macro News, Investor Flows and Trading Markets
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Apr 4, 2025 
Vania Stavrakeva, an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and Harvard PhD, dives deep into exchange rate dynamics and macroeconomic news. She discusses innovative research methodologies that improve currency forecasting and explores the effects of carry trades on asset pricing. The conversation also highlights the impact of mutual fund flows on stock prices, especially in emerging markets. Additionally, Vania shares insights on the integration of big data and AI in finance, revolutionizing how analysts approach market trends.
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Exchange Rate Enigma
- Exchange rates are one of the most important prices in international finance.
- Yet, they are also one of the least understood, making them a challenging and fascinating area of study.
The Power of Lagged Macro News
- Macro news always influences markets, but their impact varies depending on market conditions like uncertainty levels.
- Lagged macro news, not just contemporaneous news, significantly impacts market fluctuations, often explaining 50-60% of variations.
Interpreting Macro Surprises
- A positive CPI surprise combined with a prior negative GDP surprise suggests a supply-driven regime, not demand-driven.
- Markets constantly learn and re-evaluate, using current data in context with past data to interpret economic states.