

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Three reasons why'
May 26, 2025
The podcast dives into the recent delay of a proposed 50% tariff on European goods and its impact on market reactions. It explores why investors often respond to initial announcements despite frequent tariff reversals. The discussion reveals a disconnect between tax policies and consumer perceptions, particularly how media narratives can mislead public understanding of price increases, like those seen in coffee. These insights shed light on the complexities of trade policy and its influence on market dynamics.
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Why Markets React to Tariff Threats
- Markets react to aggressive tariff announcements despite frequent retreats because they disrupt short-term supply chains and increase costs.
- These threats force businesses to insure against risks, creating market distortions even if tariffs are unlikely to be implemented.
Policy Uncertainty Drives Market Risk Premiums
- Policy swings signal uncertainty, requiring risk premiums on assets.
- Markets prefer conventional policymaking over unpredictable radical influences.
Consumer Misperception on Coffee Prices
- Some consumers blamed rising coffee prices on Trump's threatened Colombian tariffs, even after the tariff was quickly retracted.
- This misperception can fuel profit-led inflation by retailers.