Lost Debate

Safer Than Ever? An American Crime Story

4 snips
Jan 21, 2025
Ravi talks with Jeff Asher, a leading crime data analyst known for his insightful understanding of crime statistics in America. They discuss alarming drops in crime rates, especially in New Orleans, and uncover the mysteries behind declining bank robberies. Jeff explains the complexities of interpreting crime statistics and the surprising trends predicted for 2025. Their analysis challenges stereotypes, particularly around immigration and crime, reinforcing the importance of data-driven insights over anecdotes.
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INSIGHT

Crime Data Challenges

  • Crime statistics are difficult to obtain due to voluntary reporting and varying agency standards.
  • The FBI's system is slow, necessitating quicker, albeit imperfect, data collection methods.
INSIGHT

Murder Rate Fluctuations

  • Murder rates surged in 2020 but decreased significantly in 2023 and 2024.
  • This two-year decline nearly offsets the 2020 spike, returning rates to pre-COVID levels.
INSIGHT

NCVS Limitations

  • The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) has limitations when comparing annual crime changes.
  • It excels at showing reported vs. unreported crimes but struggles with precise percentages due to margins of error.
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