UBS On-Air: Market Moves Navigating macroeconomic & geopolitical risks with Arif Joshi, Lazard Asset Management
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Jul 25, 2025 Arif Joshi, a Portfolio Manager and Analyst at Lazard Asset Management, dives into the intricate world of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. He discusses the latest shifts in U.S. trade policy and how they affect global markets. Joshi explores the interplay between tariffs and inflation, shedding light on the Federal Reserve’s strategies. The complexities of U.S.-China relations and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war are also examined, highlighting evolving market dynamics and investor sentiment amid these significant challenges.
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Surge in US Tariffs
- The US is imposing an effective tariff rate around 17-18%, up from about 2% pre-Trump presidency.
- This represents a 15% effective increase in tariffs from the US onto global trading partners, mainly Europe, Canada, Mexico, and Asia.
Trading Partners' Limited Response
- Trading partners have mostly refrained from significant counter tariffs against the US.
- The US has the economic leverage to impose tariffs with limited immediate retaliation from others.
Tariffs Impact Inflation and Growth
- Tariffs create a deadweight loss harming growth both in the US and its trading partners.
- Recent inflation data shows initial signs of tariffs impacting goods prices, especially excluding volatile auto prices.