The Best Ever CRE Show JF 3993: Jobs Report Shock, Inflation Outlook, Recession Risk Ahead with John Chang
Aug 10, 2025
John Chang, head of research at Marcus and Millichap, dives deep into the latest jobs report, revealing a sharp drop in job creation since April. He examines economic indicators like labor force participation and inflation trends, suggesting increasing recession risks. Chang discusses the Federal Reserve's dilemma with rising inflation against weak employment, making rate cuts unlikely. He concludes by predicting how these economic shifts will impact the commercial real estate landscape, particularly for apartments, retail, and industrial sectors in the coming year.
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Jobs Report Revision Shock
- John Chang says May and June payrolls were massively revised down, exposing a sharp slowdown in job creation.
- The trailing three‑month employment trend flipped from rising to steadily falling.
Hidden Weakness In Unemployment Rate
- John Chang warns falling labor force participation masks weakening employment.
- If participation matched April's level, unemployment would be about 4.8% instead of 4.2%.
Manufacturing And Services Are Slowing
- John Chang notes ISM manufacturing and services readings have fallen since April, signaling demand is cooling.
- Chief executives are more cautious, reducing hiring and investment.