2998: The “Minus Your Age” Rule of Thumb for Asset Allocation by Craig Stephens of Retire Before Dad
Jan 8, 2025
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Explore the intriguing 'minus your age' rules for asset allocation, adjusting stock-to-bond ratios to fit personal risk and age. Discover how consistent strategies contribute to financial stability while avoiding frequent changes. Learn about the critical role of bonds in managing risk and why younger investors should focus on growth before shifting to bonds as retirement approaches. This flexible approach emphasizes re-evaluating asset allocations over time, adapting to market changes and individual circumstances.
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Quick takeaways
The 'minus your age' rule provides a flexible approach to asset allocation, adapting stock-to-bond ratios based on personal risk tolerance and age.
Different variations of the rule, such as 100 and 120, reflect evolving investment strategies that account for increased life expectancy and market performance.
Deep dives
Understanding the Minus Your Age Rule
The minus your age rule is a formula used to determine an appropriate stock-to-bond ratio for investment portfolios. By subtracting your age from 130, you get a suggested percentage of stocks in your portfolio, with the remainder allocated to bonds. For instance, a 49-year-old would calculate 130 minus 49, resulting in an allocation of 81% stocks and 19% bonds. This method provides a simple starting point but allows for adjustments based on individual risk tolerance and investment time horizon.
Alternative Rules for Asset Allocation
Alternate versions of the minus your age rule, such as the 100 and 120 rules, offer different perspectives on asset allocation. The 100 rule suggests having an amount in bonds equal to one’s age, leading to a more conservative stance, while the 120 rule allows for greater stock exposure. Using these formulas, a 49-year-old would allocate 51% stocks and 49% bonds with the 100 rule, or 71% stocks and 29% bonds with the 120 rule. These variations indicate a shift towards more aggressive investment strategies as life expectancy and market returns have improved.
The Importance of Risk Tolerance
Risk tolerance is a crucial factor when deciding on asset allocation, as it relates to the timeframe for accessing investments and one's reaction to market volatility. While bonds can stabilize a portfolio during market fluctuations, they also limit potential returns, which might not be a concern for long-term investors. The speaker shares a personal example of having no bonds in their portfolio, indicating that their investment strategy is suitable due to a long time frame before drawdown. As retirement approaches, more conservative allocations, involving bonds, can help ensure a stable income without needing to sell investments at a loss.
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Episode 2998:
Craig Stephens explores various "minus your age" rules for determining a balanced stock-to-bond portfolio allocation. By adjusting the formula constants (100, 120, 130, or up to 140), investors can align their strategy with personal risk tolerance and investment horizons. With a flexible and data-backed approach, Stephens emphasizes that these rules of thumb serve as guidelines rather than strict laws, highlighting the importance of adjusting allocations over time as circumstances change.