Catalyst with Shayle Kann 2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal
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Jan 30, 2025 Nat Bullard, co-founder of Halcyon and former chief content officer at BloombergNEF, shares insightful trends from his extensive research on the energy transition. He discusses the unexpected implications of solar geoengineering and aerosols on climate. The conversation examines the surge in U.S. fossil fuel exports and the possible peak of Chinese oil demand. Bullard also critiques the evolving landscape of ESG investing and raises questions about the rapid growth of carbon removal startups versus market readiness and commitment to net-zero emissions.
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Unintended Geoengineering
- Artificial global cooling via aerosols masked some warming.
- Removing aerosols, mainly sulfur dioxide from coal and marine fuels, increases warming.
China's Aerosol Impact
- China's sulfur dioxide emissions reduction had a larger impact than marine regulations.
- This is less discussed because its effects were mostly localized.
US Energy Dominance
- The United States is the world's largest energy net exporter, exceeding import levels of the early 1980s.
- This dominant position questions the meaning of "energy dominance" rhetoric.