2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal
Jan 30, 2025
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Nat Bullard, co-founder of Halcyon and former chief content officer at BloombergNEF, shares insightful trends from his extensive research on the energy transition. He discusses the unexpected implications of solar geoengineering and aerosols on climate. The conversation examines the surge in U.S. fossil fuel exports and the possible peak of Chinese oil demand. Bullard also critiques the evolving landscape of ESG investing and raises questions about the rapid growth of carbon removal startups versus market readiness and commitment to net-zero emissions.
Aerosols, despite their cooling effect on climate, present a dilemma as emission reductions could worsen global warming trends.
The U.S. has become a dominant energy exporter, but conflicting oil import dynamics complicate its global energy market position.
Deep dives
Impact of Aerosols on Climate
Aerosols have played a significant role in moderating global warming effects, reducing them by an estimated 0.57 degrees Celsius due to emissions primarily from coal combustion and shipping. This information highlights a dual impact of human activity on climate: while greenhouse gases lead to warming, aerosols have inadvertently induced a cooling effect. As countries reduce aerosol emissions for environmental reasons, the absence of this cooling could exacerbate warming trends. Specifically, high altitude particulate pollution sourced from shipping lanes demonstrates how interconnected global regulations can influence climate outcomes.
U.S. Energy Dominance and Export Trends
The United States has transitioned to a net exporter of energy, now exporting roughly the same amount of energy as it imported in the early 1980s, with LNG exports significantly contributing to this dynamic. This energy boom positions the U.S. as the largest producer of oil and natural gas globally, reshaping global energy markets. However, there is an ongoing dependence on oil imports, which complicates the narrative of energy dominance. The shift in global energy flows, especially with China's burgeoning demand in contrast to its potential peak oil demand, underscores the shifting dynamics in the global energy landscape.
Trends in ESG Investment
Recent analysis of ESG investments reveals a decline in the rhetoric surrounding climate and sustainability from financial leaders like Larry Fink of BlackRock, as reflected in the significantly reduced mentions within his annual letters. Despite this reduction in discourse, assets under management in ESG funds have continued to grow slowly, indicating a persistent interest in sustainable investments, especially in Europe. This duality reflects a complex landscape where, while conversations around ESG may wane, actual investment interest may stabilize or evolve. The future trajectory of ESG as an investment strategy remains uncertain amidst concerns over performance and market dynamics.
Carbon Removal Startups and Market Dynamics
The growth of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) startups has surged, with around 500 companies now pursuing various methods to capture carbon from the atmosphere. This proliferation is a result of innovative responses to climate change; however, it raises the challenge of distinguishing successful ventures in an oversaturated market. Concurrently, the voluntary carbon market has faced a significant drop in new credit issuance and transactions, indicating potential struggles within this market. The interplay between CDR supply and the lack of a corresponding buyer demand could lead to a market correction, as tech companies reevaluate their carbon strategies amidst increasing energy demands.
Out today: Nat Bullard’s 200-page slide deck with data from across the energy transition. Nat is the former chief content officer at BloombergNEF and current co-founder at data insights company Halcyon.
In part one of their two-part conversation, Shayle cherry-picked the most interesting slides and sat down with Nat to unpack them. They cover topics like:
Accidental solar geoengineering and the state of aerosols
The United States’ record-setting fossil fuels exports
Whether Chinese oil demand is peaking
Conflicting indicators for the state of ESG investing
Whether you can have too many carbon removal startups
Recommended resources
Catalyst: Putting a halt to geoengineering — by accident
Catalyst: 2024 trends: batteries, transferable tax credits, and the cost of capital
Catalyst: 2023 trends: biomass, ESG, batteries and more
Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com.
Catalyst is brought to you by Antenna Group, the public relations and strategic marketing agency of choice for climate and energy leaders. If you're a startup, investor, or global corporation that's looking to tell your climate story, demonstrate your impact, or accelerate your growth, Antenna Group's team of industry insiders is ready to help. Learn more at antennagroup.com.
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