UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Something for everyone'
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Nov 27, 2025 The Federal Reserve Beige Book presents a stable outlook but raises concerns about tariff-induced price pressures impacting manufacturers and retailers. High-income consumers are spending, yet hiring remains weak. Delving into the implications of tariffs, the podcast explores connections between rising costs and increasing insurance premiums. Additionally, the UK budget hints at subtle tax increases, along with discussions on property tax and the societal pressures of visible inequality. A glance at the Euro area anticipates quiet data amid holiday distractions.
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Beige Book Signals Stability Not Certainty
- The US Beige Book showed a broadly stable outlook with selective concerns rather than major surprises.
- Paul Donovan says it offers little clarity on the Fed's policy timing across a divided Fed.
Tariffs Are Feeding Through To Prices
- Tariff-driven price pressure is showing up across manufacturers and retailers due to supply-chain lags.
- Paul Donovan links these costs to earlier tariff rounds and possible second-round effects like higher insurance costs.
Second‑Round Cost Effects Appear
- Rising input costs can spill into service prices, exemplified by insurance reacting to pricier car parts.
- Paul Donovan notes such second-round effects can raise broader consumer costs.