Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst renowned for his housing market insights, joins Sarah Wheeler for a deep dive into FHA loan delinquencies. They discuss how rising delinquencies could destabilize the housing market, while also comparing current conditions to previous bubbles. Insightfully, they highlight the importance of new listings data as a health indicator. The conversation explores the risks tied to late-cycle lending and forecasts a potentially healthier market landscape as we approach 2024 and 2025.
FHA loan delinquencies at 3.53% raise concerns about the potential for underlying economic vulnerabilities despite remaining below 2019 levels.
The importance of new listings data provides crucial insights into housing market stability, indicating fewer distressed sales amidst current conditions.
Deep dives
FHA Loan Delinquencies and Market Risks
FHA loan delinquencies, currently at 3.53%, are causing concern among analysts regarding their potential impact on the housing market. Even though this level remains below 2019 figures, some economists fear it signals brewing problems within the broader economy. They observe a notable spike in credit stress across various sectors, including credit cards and auto loans, suggesting that while FHA loans are not significant in number, their delinquencies could indicate underlying vulnerabilities. This perception of risk is compounded by a history of previous economic downturns linked to rising reportable delinquencies, raising questions about the sustainability of current housing market conditions.
Understanding Late-Cycle Lending Risks
The discussion of late-cycle lending risks highlights a tendency for lenders to issue loans with higher debt-to-income ratios, particularly within FHA lending. This more lenient credit behavior, characterized by lower down payments and less stringent requirements, is seen as a troubling trend among borrowers with less financial stability. As demonstrated through past cycles, loose credit standards often correlate with eventual foreclosures and economic downturns, making this an area of significant concern for the housing market. While some argue that current economic conditions do not reflect the scale of past credit booms, the potential for a job loss recession raises alarms about the risk these borrowers could pose.
The Importance of New Listings Data
New listings data serves as a crucial indicator of the housing market's health, shedding light on inventory levels and seller behavior. Analysts emphasize that observing trends in this data is essential for understanding potential shifts in market dynamics, particularly the emergence of stressed sellers. Compared with historical data from previous housing crises, the current landscape shows far fewer distressed sales, indicating greater stability among homeowners. By focusing on new listings and active inventory rather than merely delinquencies, clearer insights can be gained regarding the health of the housing market going forward.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about FHA loan delinquencies and the risk they pose to the housing market.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.