HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on the risk of FHA delinquencies
5 snips
Mar 26, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst renowned for his housing market insights, joins Sarah Wheeler for a deep dive into FHA loan delinquencies. They discuss how rising delinquencies could destabilize the housing market, while also comparing current conditions to previous bubbles. Insightfully, they highlight the importance of new listings data as a health indicator. The conversation explores the risks tied to late-cycle lending and forecasts a potentially healthier market landscape as we approach 2024 and 2025.
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FHA Delinquencies and Housing Market Crash
- FHA delinquencies are rising, but still below 2019 levels, making a housing market crash unlikely.
- The current situation differs significantly from the 2008 crisis, with lower underwater mortgages and LTV ratios.
FHA Loans and Late-Cycle Lending Risk
- FHA loans represent late-cycle lending risk, particularly for low-down-payment borrowers with high LTVs.
- These households are vulnerable to foreclosure in a job-loss recession due to limited equity.
Recession Indicators and Market Analysis
- Watch residential construction workers as a recession indicator, not just FHA delinquencies.
- New listings data provides tangible insights into market stress and potential supply increases.