Full Episode - New Polling Shows BIG Shift Toward Democrats + Why Putin Won’t Stop, And Why Ukraine Won’t Settle

Chuck Todd breaks down why Donald Trump’s sudden push for a Ukraine “peace deal” may be more about political retreat than diplomacy, especially as Europe now shoulders most of the war’s cost—leaving Trump with diminished leverage abroad and a base deeply skeptical of foreign interventions. Chuck digs into new polling that shows a steady and significant shift toward Democrats, with a widening generic ballot advantage and Trump’s approval continuing to fall, suggesting the midterms—and even the Senate—are unexpectedly in play. He explores how Trump’s attempts to manipulate the economy could backfire, how a potential “AI bubble” could further weaken him, and why GOP divisions are poised to intensify. Plus, an update on the California governor’s race, where a field of lackluster Democratic contenders has allowed Republicans to overperform, raising questions about whether bigger names—or Rick Caruso—will jump into a race long dominated by the shadows of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom.

Then, Chuck is joined by Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Anne Applebaum for a sweeping, unsparing look at the state of the Russia–Ukraine war and the global democratic landscape it threatens. Applebaum breaks down whether a ceasefire is even plausible this year, given Vladimir Putin’s unwavering war aims, the murky negotiators involved in back-channel talks, and Trump’s unusually warm posture toward the Kremlin. She details why Ukrainians refuse to accept a “kick the can” peace deal, how corruption scandals are playing out domestically, and the way drones, energy strikes, and a collapsing Russian economy are reshaping the battlefield. From mysterious elite deaths to China’s strategic support, Applebaum outlines the brittle yet dangerous architecture sustaining Putin’s regime.

The conversation widens into a broader examination of the worldwide struggle between democracy and autocracy—from Trump’s Venezuela maneuverings to Saudi Arabia’s complicated role, from Silicon Valley’s unchecked power to Europe’s scramble to recalibrate its alliances. Applebaum warns that the U.S. walking away from Ukraine would reverberate far beyond Eastern Europe, and she explains why the speed and scale of Trump’s attacks on democratic norms have raised historic alarm. It’s a candid, far-reaching assessment of the forces shaping global stability—and the stakes ahead.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Trump’s “peace deal” may be his attempt to walk away from Ukraine

06:00 Europe is funding bulk of the war, Trump has less leverage

07:15 Trump’s plan to make Europe foot bill is working, but diminishes influence

09:15 If Trump gave rationale for removing Maduro, he’d have more credibility

11:00 Trump’s base doesn’t want foreign military interventions 

12:30 Polling shows Democrats with large generic ballot advantage

15:30 Every poll has moved in the Democrats direction, and lower Trump approval

17:30 Donald Trump will try to pull levers to fix economy, could make it worse

19:00 Democrats have a huge advantage going into the midterms

19:45 Democrats need a 6-7 point generic advantage to win house

20:15 If current polling holds, the senate is in play

23:00 Applying election and polling trends nationwide, Dems could blowout midterms

24:30 Democrats unpopularity turned out to be meaningless in 2025 elections

26:00 Bad is going to get worse for Trump, GOP will be further divided

27:45 “AI Bubble” could sink Trump if it pops

29:00 Update on the California governor’s race

29:45 Democratic voters crave optimism, Tom Steyer doesn’t offer it

31:30 Candidates for CA governor feel like their all “Tier 2” candidates

34:00 Jerry Brown & Gavin Newsom have hovered over CA politics for decades

36:00 There are only two prominent Republican candidates in CA

37:00 Dem candidates are so weak, GOP candidates performing well

38:00 Will Rick Caruso run for mayor of LA or governor of CA?

40:30 There should be some bigger names jumping into the race

46:00 Anne Applebaum joins the Chuck ToddCast

47:45 Will we get a ceasefire this year between Russia & Ukraine?

48:15 Putin has never said he’ll give up original war aims

49:30 Serious concerns about negotiators involved in secret peace deal

50:15 Talks have mostly concerned trade deals between U.S. & Russia

51:00 Putin knows he’ll never have a more supportive U.S. president

52:15 Putin holds a special status with Trump

53:00 Ukraine is more reliant on Europe than U.S. for the war

53:45 Is the corruption scandal involving ministers imperiling Zelensky?

54:45 Zelensky hasn’t gotten in the way of corruption investigation

56:15 Ukrainians have no interest in cease fire to kick can down road

57:30 Ukrainians won’t be strongarmed into accepting a bad deal

58:15 Drones have completely changed complexion of the war

01:00:00 Russians are targeting civilians, Ukraine hitting energy targets

01:00:45 Russians don’t care about human losses, just financial losses

01:02:00 At what point will a bad economy put pressure on Putin?

01:02:45 Russian elite mysteriously committing suicide or dying

01:03:30 Prigozhin was the only person who could challenge Putin

01:05:00 The Russian regime seems inevitable until the day it falls

01:06:00 Putin is completely dependent on China

01:06:45 China will stick with Russia & support war to weaken U.S.

01:07:45 Putin still has allies in Iran & North Korea

01:08:15 What does Russia think they’re accomplishing with Poland incursions?

01:09:30 Russia trying to create divisions between Ukraine and Europeans

01:10:15 Russia’s actions are only stiffening the European’s spine

01:11:00 Status of U.S. aid into Ukraine

01:12:15 What does it look like if the U.S. walks away from Ukraine?

01:13:30 Russia is still demanding land they haven’t conquered

01:15:15 Trump wants the optics of a big peace deal where “he wins”

01:16:30 Trump’s actions with Venezuela look like Putin’s in Ukraine

01:18:45 Trump’s Venezuela actions undermining international system

01:19:45 Is Saudi Arabia a dictatorship and what is our relationship with them?

01:20:30 The Saudi’s primary interest isn’t undermining the U.S. unlike Russia

01:22:00 Trump’s family has enormous conflicts of interest with the Saudis

01:23:15 Why security guarantees for Qatar but not Saudi Arabia?

01:25:15 Trump’s deals in the Gulf seem to benefit him more than U.S.

01:26:00 Is democracy losing the worldwide fight against autocracy?

01:28:00 Due to state of U.S. it feels like democratic argument is losing

01:29:30 Role of silicon valley in fight between democracy & autocracy

01:30:45 Tech has power to shape opinions and public perception

01:33:00 Government has never outsourced major tech shift to private sector

01:34:00 How dangerous is the concentration of corporate power in America?

01:35:00 The EU is the only entity that could regulate big tech

01:36:00 Trump’s isolation has been a wake up call to Europe, can it hold?

01:38:00 Europe was so sure of alliance with U.S. they let things slide

01:39:00 Level of concern with state of American democracy is very high

01:40:00 The speed of Trump’s attacks on democracy is unprecedented

01:42:00 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Anne Applebaum

01:42:15 Ask Chuck

01:42:45 Any book recommendations on the fall of the Ottoman Empire?

01:46:45 Thoughts on voter approval for constitutional amendments?

01:52:00 Way to reform the primary system to produce moderates?

01:56:30 Dem voters still motivated to vote despite lower approval of party

02:04:00 College football preview

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