Ukraine two years on – Inside Russia’s state of terror
Feb 28, 2024
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The podcast discusses Russia's war on Ukraine, Putin's nationalist perspective, and the country's deteriorating political landscape. Topics include the value of Avdiivka, Putin's control tactics, and the looming threat of conflict. The episode offers insights into Russia's geopolitical ambitions, the impact of fake elections, and the challenges facing Kyiv. Overall, it provides a deep dive into the current state of affairs in Russia and Ukraine.
Russian forces are heavily invested in taking Avdiivka despite its limited strategic importance.
The murder of Alexei Navalny unveils Putin's regime's fear of dissent and internal unrest.
Russian casualties in Avdiivka are downplayed to control information and public order, impacting public opinion on the war.
Deep dives
The Stalemate in the War Between Russia and Ukraine
Ukraine finds itself in a defensive stance at the beginning of 2024 due to ammunition shortages, affecting its war effort against Russia. As Ukraine awaits Western funding, the conflict continues as Russian forces persist in a quest for territorial gains in eastern Ukraine despite significant casualties. The war has cost thousands of Ukrainian lives and left destruction in its wake.
Putin's Regime and Navalny's Murder
The murder of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in a Russian prison reflects the worsening state of Putin's regime, inclining towards self-interested kleptocracy and suppression of dissent. Navalny's killing underscores the regime's fear of internal unrest and dissent, illustrating the declining legitimacy of Putin's leadership. The act highlights the regime's paranoia and attempts to stifle opposition, anticipating potential unrest and challenges to its power.
Impact of Casualties and Public Opinion in Russia
The intense casualties suffered by Russian forces in the battle for Avdivka are downplayed by the state to control information and maintain public order. The war's toll on the Russian populace includes economic hardships, inflation, and depletion of savings, affecting the public's views on the conflict. While some support the war, a significant portion sees it as a burden, facing practical difficulties and discontent with the ongoing conflict.
Challenges and Path Forward for Ukraine and Russia
The possibility of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia raises questions about trust in Putin's commitment to agreements if Ukraine were to concede territories to end the conflict. Despite distrust in Putin, negotiations may be inevitable for a resolution as complete victory for either side is unlikely. Crafting a lasting solution requires Western support to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities and deter future Russian aggression, with potential NATO membership as a security measure.
The Future Beyond Putin's Rule and Russia's Transition
Speculations on Russia's post-Putin era suggest a shift towards a more pragmatic leadership focused on restoring stability and improving foreign relations after Putin's departure. The next generation of leaders may prioritize economic interests and normalized relations with the West, moving away from Putin's confrontational approach. While a democratic Russia remains uncertain, a more pragmatic and less ideological Russia might emerge post-Putin's reign, aiming for international engagement and stability.
The first of two specials covering Russia’s war on Ukraine two years on. This time: Inside Russia. Avdiivka has fallen, Alexei Navalny is dead, and pro-Russia Republicans are starving Kyiv of ammunition. Putin finally feels the war could turn in his direction. Is he right? And how does the Russian tyrant keep control of a country where a restive mood is growing… and even fake elections can matter?
Oz Katerji talks to Mark Galeotti, historian and host of the podcast In Moscow’s Shadows, about the political world Putin has made, and what it means.
Part Two of these specials will be with Patreon people early in the week.
• “We are looking at Russia’s degeneration into its Banana Republic phase.”
• “The investment of human lives into taking Avdiivka is completely out of proportion to its strategic value.”
• “Putin is a primordial 19th century nationalist… He can’t cope with the idea that Russia is not some world-bestriding colossus.”
Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production
