In this engaging conversation, Daniel Drezner, a Tufts University professor specializing in international politics, and Kori Schake, an expert from the American Enterprise Institute with deep roots in U.S. defense and foreign policy, dive into the implications of a second Trump term. They explore how Trump's past policies on Ukraine, trade, and alliances could return with even more vigor. Key topics include potential shifts in Middle Eastern relations, the unpredictable nature of U.S.-China dealings, and the complicated dynamics of immigration policies with Mexico. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis!
A second Trump term is likely to exacerbate chaos in U.S. foreign policy, complicating allies' diplomatic strategies amid rising unpredictability.
Trump's administration may continue aggressive trade policies, using tariffs as negotiation tools that could threaten global economic stability and collaboration.
Deep dives
Chaos and Diplomacy in Trump's Presidency
The potential implications of a second Trump term suggest that the U.S. will continue to face a high 'chaos premium' in foreign policy decisions. This chaos could make it challenging for allies to align their diplomatic strategies with the U.S., while adversaries may capitalize on the unpredictability. The Trump administration’s first term showcased a process marked by unpredictability and tension, as decisions often lacked a coherent foreign policy narrative. This unpredictability poses strategic risks, as allies may either distance themselves or feel compelled to make concessions to maintain stability.
Military Spending and Foreign Relations
One notable achievement of Trump's first term was the significant increase in defense spending, which was seen as overdue by many defense analysts. While initially welcomed, this trend raises concerns about subsequent unpredictability in military policy and alliances. The Abraham Accords emerged as a key success, enhancing security collaboration among certain Middle Eastern nations, although at the expense of Palestinian support. As Trump’s administration progresses, the focus on China will likely remain a forefront concern, potentially reshaping defense priorities and international alliances.
Trade, Tariffs, and Economic Strategy
Trade policy under a second Trump administration is expected to continue featuring tariffs as a central tool, reflecting Trump's mercantilist views. His administration could adopt a more aggressive stance on economic measures, blurring lines between trade adjustments and broader geopolitical negotiations. The potential for escalating trade restrictions raises concerns about retaliatory cycles that could significantly impact global economic stability. Observers fear that while tariffs may be employed as bargaining tools, their effectiveness is uncertain and may lead to widespread economic repercussions.
Implications for Key Global Conflicts
The approach to international conflicts, particularly concerning Ukraine and Iran, is projected to shift significantly under Trump. The administration may lean towards a more isolationist stance regarding Ukraine, impacting support for its defense against Russian aggression. In the Middle East, a Trump presidency is likely to encourage stronger military actions against Iran, potentially sidelining existing diplomatic agreements. Overall, the geopolitical landscape could become increasingly fragmented, with the U.S. adopting a more unilateral approach to international relations.
Earlier this week, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election, ushering in a new era of uncertainty at home and abroad.
In a special bonus episode, Foreign Affairs Editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke with Daniel Drezner and Kori Schake on Wednesday, November 6, about what the world might expect from a second Trump term—on everything from wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, to China and alliances, to trade and immigration.
Daniel Drezner is a professor of international politics at Tufts University. Kori Schake, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, has served in senior jobs in the Defense Department, the State Department, and on the National Security Council. They reflect on the lessons of Trump’s first term and whether, this time, he will take his “America first” agenda even further.