Historian, seismologist, science communicator, and architectural historian discuss being on the cusp of change, predicting historical significance, value of worst case scenarios, living on the edge, justifying human existence to aliens, and preparing for the unpredictable.
The importance of understanding potential futures and taking appropriate actions based on them, rather than striving for complete accuracy in predictions.
The challenge of accurately predicting significant events in both the present and the future, as demonstrated by historical and diplomatic examples.
Deep dives
Predicting the Future and What it Entails
The podcast episode explores the idea of predicting the future and emphasizes that the point of such predictions is not to be completely accurate, but rather to consider what potential futures might look like. It mentions examples like aliens coming to Earth, climate change, and the replacement of athletes with robots. The focus is on understanding these possible futures so that appropriate actions can be taken. The episode also mentions historical predictions that have been proven wrong, highlighting the challenge of accurately predicting significant events.
Historians' Ability to Predict Future Significance
The podcast discusses a study conducted by historian Dr. Matt Connolly, which explores whether historians can accurately predict which moments in the present will be significant in the future. The study used a collection of diplomatic cables from the US State Department and found that diplomats were not particularly good at identifying events that would be considered historically important. Both false positives and false negatives were observed. The episode raises the question of whether it is possible to predict the future accurately and the importance of analyzing how people think about the future.
The Inability to Predict Earthquakes
The episode delves into the challenge of predicting earthquakes. It highlights the difficulties in simulating earthquakes in the lab and the fact that earthquakes begin deep underground, making it hard to access the necessary data. Seismologists, like the rest of us, have to wait for earthquakes to happen. The podcast also mentions the allure of standing on the edge of a precipice and the adrenaline rush that comes with contemplating taking a leap. It draws a parallel between the unpredictability of earthquakes and the unpredictability of the future.
Convincing Aliens to Spare Earth
The podcast explores the trope of humans having to convince aliens to spare Earth, showcasing various examples from books, TV shows, and movies. Listeners are asked how they would convince aliens to save our planet. The responses range from showing them the beauty of nature, art, and community, to making arguments about the human experience and our capacity for growth and change. The episode raises questions about our purpose as humans and what we could demonstrate to extraterrestrial beings to justify our existence.
“Future Memories” by Mario Melendez translated by Eloisa Amezcua, Poetry Magazine, 2017, Reprinted by permission of author.
This episode of Flash Forward was written by me, Rose Eveleth, edited by Avery Trufelman, produced by Ozzy Llinas Goodman and sound designed by Ariana Martinez. Much of the music in this episode is by Ilan Blanck. The outro music is by Hussalonia. The episode art is by Mattie Lubchansky. The incredible beat that dropped at the end is by Lazerbeak.
Special thanks to Julia Furlan, who hit the streets of New York City to ask people about aliens for us. Thanks also to everybody who sent in voice memos around that question we couldn’t use them all and wow there were so many good ones. Thanks also to Ed Yong who read a passage from A hundred years hence : the expectations of an optimist; to Tracy K. Smith who read her poem Sci-Fi, and to Stanford University for letting us use that audio; to Jeffrey Nils Gardner who read Storming Toward a Precipice By Simon J. Ortiz; and to Elena Fernández Collins who called to the void for us and read Future Memories by Mario Melendez in both Spanish and English.
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