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2. PRECIPICE

Flash Forward

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Predicting Historical Significance

This chapter discusses the challenge of predicting which current events will be historically significant in the future. It explores examples of overlooked events that turned out to be important and proposes analyzing diplomatic cables as a proxy dataset for studying long-term trends. The chapter examines the accuracy of diplomats in predicting future significance and raises questions about the worth of trying to predict the future given the unpredictability of historical importance.

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