FICC Focus FX Moment: Brown Brothers Harriman's Haddad on G10 FX in 2026
Jan 9, 2026
Elias Haddad, Global Head of Market Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, joins the discussion to dissect currency trends for 2026. He highlights how the dollar may weaken under dovish Fed policies and rising fiscal stress. The duo explores the dollar-yen dynamic, with Elias making a compelling case for yen strength due to Japan's fiscal health. They also share a bullish outlook for the Australian dollar, driven by domestic activity. Don't miss their insights into euro prospects and the challenges facing the British pound!
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Dollar Moves Depend On Fed And Data
- The US dollar's path in 2026 hinges on relative monetary policy trends and Fed easing expectations.
- Markets need US economic weakening to validate Fed dovishness before a sustained dollar decline.
Low Conviction Dollar Bear Case
- Audrey Childe Freeman remains only modestly bearish on the dollar because US data must show clear slowdown to trigger a major decline.
- Mixed signals like weak manufacturing but strong services keep conviction low for big dollar moves.
Fiscal Stress Shapes FX Sentiment
- Rising fiscal stress will shape FX in 2026 as markets focus on fiscal credibility alongside rate differentials.
- Fiscal concerns can keep the dollar defensive and support currencies like the yen if credibility improves.