Science Weekly Should the UK brace for a brutal flu season?
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Nov 18, 2025 
Prof Ed Hutchinson, a leading expert in molecular virology from the University of Glasgow, dives into the unsettling early onset of this flu season, driven by a mutated H3N2 strain. He discusses the strain's increased transmissibility, connections to Australia's severe season, and the importance of annual vaccinations due to virus evolution. Despite the vaccine's potential mismatch, he stresses its role in reducing severe outcomes and emphasizes practical protections like testing, masks, and hygiene to safeguard vulnerable populations.
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Season Started Much Earlier Than Usual
- England's flu season arrived about five weeks early, with 11% test positivity by early November versus 3% last year.
- Early circulation is mainly among school-aged children and young adults, raising risk of later spread to older groups.
Mutated H3N2 Driving Current Spread
- The dominant virus is an H3N2 descendant that gained seven mutations over summer, likely boosting transmissibility.
- Its lineage links to Australia's severe season, suggesting a higher spread potential in the northern winter.
Higher R Value Means Faster Spread
- Estimated influenza R is about 1.4 this year versus a normal 1.1–1.2, increasing onward transmission.
- Higher R magnifies cases rapidly, so more infections are expected from the same number of initial cases.