Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown
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Jun 13, 2025 Explore the shifting global economy as experts discuss the signs of a growth slowdown influenced by the trade war. Delve into industrial production trends, highlighting regional disparities and spending impacts. Unpack consumer behavior and the surprising role of savings amid economic uncertainty. Discover how tariffs affect inflation and the goods sector differently across Europe and Asia. The conversation also addresses inventory dynamics, pricing strategies, and the resilience of households in navigating these challenges.
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Global Growth Downshifting
- Global growth is shifting down from early-year gains to weaker expansion due to trade war impacts and other factors.
- The timing and magnitude of slowdown effects remain uncertain but trade tensions dominate the macro outlook.
Uneven Front-Loading Effects
- Front-loading caused a strong early-year surge in manufacturing and retail but is now expected to unwind, leading to weakness.
- The U.S. did not benefit significantly from this front-loading as much of its spending was met by imports, benefiting Asia and Western Europe instead.
Tariffs Hit Businesses First
- Tariff-related tax increases are real and raising government revenues but are not yet fully reflected in consumer prices.
- The tariff cost impact appears delayed and more initially borne by businesses, smoothing the inflation effect for consumers so far.